BOJ Takes Extraordinary Step of Buying Bank Stock Holdings
Japan was in a financial Catch 22. Until they fixed the banks' problems, they could not fix the economy. The debate over renewed capital infusions to shore up bank balance sheets was renewed. The Resolution and Collection Corporation, having failed to perform its role of absorbing bank NPLs, was under review.
The Bank of Japan had long advocated new bank capital infusions as a means of pushing them to accelerate their NPL disposals. At their most recent policy meeting, the Bank surprised the street by stating that they would begin buying cross-held stocks from 15 banks (including 4 regionals), ostensibly up to the amount the banks hold in excess of their regulatory capital, which was JPY8 trillion as of the end of March 2002. Moreover, they would buy these stocks (bank stocks are excluded) at market price over a period of one year at the longest.
The move solves several problems;
a) I frees the government from having to directly use public funds to recapitalize the banks, at least for now.
b) It allows the FSA and the Koizumi Administration to push the banks harder to accelerate their NPL disposal. But the net positive impact for the banks is probably more like JPY4 trillion instead of JPY8 trillion, because at current market values of stocks, they probably have unrealized losses of some JPY4 trillion.
c) JPY8 trillion is roughly the equivalent of the current stock loan position, i.e., the short interest in the market. At the very least, this could well spook the short interest out of the market over the short term, just as we saw last March.
d) Some worry that the action would weaken the BOJ's balance sheet, and lead to weaker bond prices as well as a weaker yen. This is not so bad either, especially if it leads to inflationary pressure. Japan is currently suffering from a deflationary spiral.
Now that the BOJ has taken the initiative with extraordinary stop-gap measures, it is up to the Koizumi Administration and the government to compliment the move with intensified pressure on the banks to liquidate their NPLs. The result of this could well be another spurt in bankruptcies and irrecoverable debts, which would place pressure on an extremely fragile economic recovery. This is where the Koizumi Administration can give the BOJ's effort a boost with accomodative fiscal policy.
