Monday, May 19, 2008

US Recession Buy Indicator?

Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial digest is talking about a recessino buy indicator that may indicate the next big move in US stocks is UP, not DOWN. The recession indicator uses industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, nonfarm payrolls and personal income as the main indicators. The recession indicator is triggered when each of these is below 6-month earlier levels. Historically, this indicator is a good contrarian call. The S&P 500 has returned an average of 37%, while the gains look more like 106% three years after the signal.

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